LEC 2023 Summer Groups Preview – Which two teams will head to playoffs?

With two teams already locking their spot for the LEC 2023 Summer Playoffs, let’s go through the remaining matches of the Groups stage.

LEC 2023 Groups Summer Preview – Taking stock of the situation

The first round of the LEC Summer Groups stage took fans by surprise, with one team dropping the ball and others stepping up once again compared to the regular split. One of them is XL Esports, who have beaten MAD Lions and SK Gaming to lock their first-ever LEC Playoffs.

From being the bottom team in the two previous splits to becoming one of the four teams to make it to playoffs, this might be one of the best Cinderella stories we might witness in the EMEA region. XL deserved to qualify and will now have the chance to lock a spot for the LEC Finals if they are able to get enough Championship points in Summer.

The other team to have qualified is G2, who continue their run of domination in LEC. They quickly swept both KOI and BDS and once again, they are the favorites to win the title. If they manage to, it would be the second trophy of the season, following the one won in Winter. With high chances to see G2 qualifying for Worlds, their real test will be once they head to Korea later in November. Following a decent MSI run, EU fans hope to see G2 fight closer to the top at Worlds 2023.

Now that two teams getting their ticket for playoffs, the six remaining teams (FNC, MAD, KOI, TH, SK, and BDS) will have to put everything on the line to snatch the last two spots.

LEC Summer Groups – Matches and predictions

Below you can find the matches for week 2 of the LEC Summer Groups:

FNC vs MAD – 18:00 CET – July 22
KOI vs TH – 21:00 CET – July 22
SK vs TBD – 18:00 CET – July 23
BDS vs TBD – 21:00 CET – July 23

SK will face the winner between FNC and MAD, with BDS facing the winner of the other losers’ bracket match. Let’s take a look at each match individually and what are the chances of victory for each team.

FNC vs MAD Lions

Hardly anyone, including us, expected Fnatic to lose against SK Gaming, especially considering the initial results they showed during the regular split. But it eventually happened, and now things are getting tricky for the legendary organization. They have to go through two matches and face SK once again if they beat MAD Lions.

The general impression is that FNC aren’t able to play the macro game well and that they need to get a lead early on to be able to win. If they are targeted and fall behind, the players seem a bit lost. And unless Noah or Humanoid steps up huge to carry the teamfights, the team becomes a bit of a sitting duck. This trend has been growing and SK did a fantastic job at exploiting those weaknesses, with Irrelevant and Markoon having key roles in neutralizing the opponents.

MAD Lions, on the other hand, were dominated by XL’s drafts, so it’s hard to judge what their form will be going into this match. It felt like the team struggled to play given the bad draft prep. Moreover, Elyoya was a big missing protagonist in that series, as he was overwhelmed by Peach.

That being said, MAD Lions are already locked for playoffs, so their results don’t really matter this time around. It will be more important to adapt from last week’s mistakes and bounce back with strong performances, regardless of the result. But for that same reason, we feel like FNC will be more hungry and eager to win the match.

Prediction: FNC 55% | MAD 45%

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KOI vs TH

The LEC’s “El Clasico” is back. The two Spanish organizations, KOI and Team Heretics, will face off in the lower bracket of Group A, to determine who will continue to fight for playoffs and a Worlds spot. Whoever loses, this will likely bring the end to their year (KOI have a chance to qualify with championship points, but they will need a few scenarios to align).

KOI got absolutely destroyed by G2 and their performances are light years away from their last season. While they did change two players, even the ones that stayed on the roster are on completely different forms: Comp is looking average among the ADC pool and Malrang’s playstyle got probably figured out by the other LEC teams.

Against Team Heretics, this last point might be lethal since they will face Jankos and Vetheo, who have looked solid ever since the start of the split. Yes, you could argue that TH didn’t look good last week, but that is because the team’s macro is all over the place. We expect them, though, to beat KOI early on, and manage their leads somehow. It will not be a clean series, but Heretics should be the one in better form and potentially advancing… if Evi doesn’t end up getting smashed by Szygenda.

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SK and BDS are waiting…

These two teams will have to wait for their opponents but both should be relatively happy with how they played so far in the Groups stage. SK have looked impressive, to say the least, especially given how they could’ve qualified for a top two directly. Regardless of who they face between FNC and MAD, they have a high chance of going through.

Similarly, Team BDS have looked better coming into this phase of the Summer Split, showcasing their macro-oriented playstyle once again. Considering the messy games from both KOI and Team Heretics, the Swiss organization will potentially lock their spot into the top four, which will also guarantee them a spot for the LEC Finals. And it’s rightfully earned since they were consistent for quite a while. They might not be the team with the highest potential but they showed that you don’t need star players to get strong results.

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