Worlds 2023 Play-In Day 1 Match Predictions – Worlds are Here!

Worlds Play-in Day 1 Recap

The major takeaway from this Day 1 of Worlds is that the teams have made some decent preparations around the new meta, but every team has taken their own twist and adapted it to the player’s strengths, which is quite positive. Out of all the teams, the DFM draft was the one I was the least positive about and that might be something to take into consideration in future games: if they can’t adapt, they might really fall in the standings.

Aside from them, we saw top picks like Hecarim, Miss Fortune, Aatrox and Sejuani being prevalent in drafts. The bot lane featured a decent variety of champions, with Kalista, Kai’Sa, MF, Tristana, Aphelios, as well as Seraphine APC: we will likely continue this trend as teams get accustomed to the best meta picks.

Going back to the teams, we saw the two European representatives going 2-0 on Day 1. Fnatic’s wins were convincing and considering all the stuff they had to through these days, their performance was nothing but convincing. Rhuckz had a major showing at Worlds and will pass the baton to Hylissang with the highest KDA of 22.0 so far at the tournament.

As for MAD Lions, the team fought hard to get those two wins. Isurus was a pleasant surprise and lost the match mainly due to mechanics rather than strategy, while Istanbul Wildcats have shown great pick potential and overall early game presence. The TCL team, however, still has a lot to improve in the mid-game compared to other teams.

LOUD went 1-1 on the first day, losing to Beyond Gaming and winning against DFM in the second game. The Brazilian team is a must-watch from Group A: the chances of them getting in the top 4 are quite high if they keep performing like on Day 1. BYG will also be in contention for the top of Group A: their playstyle reminds is quite similar to LPL teams and have shown the ability to play the meta well. Their match against FNC will likely determine who get to advance directly to the main event.

In the last match of Day 1, DRX made a big upset and won against the LPL seed RNG. The LCK team was able to put together an exquisite performance, with well-executed teamfights thanks also to a better draft. RNG played with an unorthodox draft compared to the usual, which put them on the backfoot immediately from the start. While they were able to play according to their drafts, they couldn’t win against the teamfight comp of DRX, losing their opener of Worlds.

Lastly, Evil Geniuses also lost to Fnatic. Their game was more one-sided than it should’ve been since the draft came out pretty badly. Inspired gave up on his bot lane to help snowball the Renekton, but the Caitlyn-Lux bot lane duo failed to create an advantage on their own. With the ADC behind, the game was doomed for the team and they will have to come back on Day 2.

Worlds Play-in Day 2 Preview

EG vs BYG

Evil Geniuses’ second game of Day 2 will be against the PCS team Beyond Gaming. Based on the Day 1 analysis, BYG should come into the series as favored. BYG can play both around top or bot which gives them a great advantage in champ select.

The North American team must fix their issues regarding their drafts: if they can’t fix them, BYG might end up destroying EG as FNC did on Day 1. Below you can find some of the best odds for the series. Depending on whether BYG will play around top or not, you can swap First Herald for EG.

Winner: BYG
First Blood: BYG
First Herald: BYG
First Dragon: EG
Map Duration: over 31.5
Total Kills: under 25.5

DRX vs SGB

After the match vs RNG, DRX will have another important test against the dark horse Saigon Buffalo. The Vietnamese team can pull some weird picks out of the box, which might throw DRX off as they have a more traditional drafting style.

With that being said, if DRX continues drafting teamfight compositions and playing around their bot lane, they shouldn’t have many problems beating SGB. Nevertheless, expect the match to be much closer, as DRX will take their time to get to all their carries on item spikes.

Winner: DRX
First Blood: SGB
First Herald: SGB
Map Duration: over 33.5
First Tower: SGB
Total Kills: over 26.5
First Dragon: DRX
Total Dragons Slain: over 4.5

MAD vs RNG

MAD Lions will have the chance to continue their win streak and basically lock their top 4 spot if they can beat RNG. It will be tough for the LEC team, though, after how they played yesterday. While they did take two wins, the mid-late game transition wasn’t that convincing, and facing a team like RNG might be problematic.

MAD might be able to find early leads, but RNG is quite good when it comes to teamfights. For RNG, it will be crucial for them to draft something that allows them to teamfight while also relying on Breathe’s dueling abilities. Avoid drafting Leblanc on Xiaohu like on Day 1 would likely be better, and have him play a control mage. Having said that, you can find the best odds for this series here:

Winner: RNG
First Blood: MAD
First Herald: RNG
Map Duration: over 32.5
First Tower: RNG
Total Kills: over 25.5
First Dragon: MAD

Fnatic vs Evil Geniuses – September 29th – 23:00 CET

Starting off, the first featured match will be the western battle between Fnatic and Evil Geniuses. The game will be crucial for both teams, especially after what went down for both.

On one hand, EG will have to play with the substitute ADC Kaori, stepping in to take Danny’s starting spot. The first already subbed in during the LCS Summer playoffs and despite playing at a reasonable level, he doesn’t seem to have unlocked his full potential yet.

On the other hand, Fnatic have lost both of their bot lane players Upset and Hylissang, as the two tested positive for Covid-19 prior to flying to NA. Upset recovered and will play on day one, while Hyli will join the team hopefully in Match number 3.

@FNCUpset: “Last game in eu soloq with a Nunu, Teemo and Janna and 2 of them had smite. I am gonna miss it”

The two roster changes for FNC, however, won’t change the way the team functions. The team will likely still play around its bot lane since Wunder has notoriously more success on weakside. FNC might benefit from the meta shift for the mid-jungle duo, as Razork is quite comfortable playing carry-style.

On EG’s side, similarly, the team will still hover around the mid and bot lane. Kaori will likely have adapted to how the team played in playoffs, but the crucial part will be on Inspired. The polish jungler was known for playing carry back in the Rogue days, and just like Razork, he might be incentivized to make it work again.

Overall, I’m expecting Evil Geniuses to take this series. I think that Fnatic’s latest issues, paired with the low amount of practice, don’t make them an attractive team to bet on LoL Worlds. Not only that, but the EU team is also not that great in Bo1, while EG have proved to be better at it. Unless major twists again, the home heroes will be the ones striking first at this year’s Worlds 2022. If you want the odds for this series, you can find the best ones here, offered by Midnite:

Winner: EG
First Blood: Fnatic
Race to 5 kills: EG
Map Duration: over 31.5
Total kills: over 24.5
First tower: EG

Loud vs Beyond Gaming – September 30th – 00:00 CET

Right after the Fnatic vs EG match, there will be a game between two minor regions: PCS representative Beyond Gaming will face the Brazilian team LOUD in their first debut match at Worlds.

LOUD was able to win the CBLOL playoffs with one of the most experienced rosters from the region. Top laner Robo has already been at Worlds and the same goes for their mid laner Tinowns, who performed brilliantly in the latest split.

The bot lane of Brance and Ceos is quite an interesting pairing, as they proved they can play various types of bot lanes with decent success. As for BYG, the team has returned to Worlds after the scandal that blew up last year about their mid laner Maoan. With a full roster of domestic talents, they are looking to redeem themselves.

BYG also play with a bot-centric style, but compared to most teams that focus the lane with junglers, it’s the mid laner Minji usually making the roams. He has the highest KP% at 78.4, which is much higher than usual.

The thing with BYG is that they have a 100% win rate if they are ahead at 15 minutes, but overall they had a negative gold and exp differential across playoffs. This suggests that they are strong at playing the mid to late game. Not only that, but if they can get an early lead, it will be almost impossible to recover.

Out of the two, I’m favoring BYG in this one. Their mid-jungle duo is underestimated for me, as HuSha was considered a must-watch jungler last year. This year, it will be no different, and I’m expecting LOUD to struggle as their macro might not be at the same level.

Winner: BYG
First Blood: LOUD
Race to 10 kills: BYG
First dragon: LOUD
First tower: BYG
Map Duration: over 32.5

DRX vs Royal Never Give Up – September 30th – 05:00 CET

Day 1 of Worlds play-ins will close with the most exciting match of the whole stage. The LPL team RNG will go up against the LCK representative DRX in what might already decide who is the number one team of Group B.

Based on the most recent performances, RNG should be favored. They have the better players on every single role, with mid and ADC being the two where the gap is close.

Jungle might be the position where the gap is the biggest, considering how Pyosik performed during playoffs. It is still unsure on who will be the starting jungler for DRX, as Juhan was much more consistent.

Nevertheless, RNG’s Wei should be ahead of both of them. In addition, the Chinese team is quite a lot more proactive compared to DRX, who will likely suffer in the early stages of the game. If the Korean team is able to hold off RNG until the late game, then there might be a chance for them to win. Otherwise, RNG will just run over DRX. Below you can find the most interesting (and likely) odds for the series:

Winner: RNG
First Blood: RNG
First Dragon: DRX
Map Duration: over 33.5
Total kills: over 24.5
First Tower: RNG